peter_schwartz wrote:To me, it's not a matter of one being a worse catastrophe than the other. The consequences of either are dire, just with different characteristics. But if I had to choose, I'd choose the oil spill:
• they occur mainly away from people's homes, and don't generally cause the environment around them to become so toxic that they're no longer inhabitable
One last round of comments:
It's worth keeping in mind that not all radiation is equal, nor are all radioactive materials. To date, no uranium or plutonium has escaped containment at Fukushima. According to the IAEA, the emissions of most concern are iodine-131 and cesium-137. The first has a half-life of eight days, the second, ~30 years. In addition, much less cesium-137 is being emitted compared to iodine-131.
Fukushima will be habitable again; it's not going to become an exclusion zone.
• oil spillage generally doesn't blow around the world in a toxic cloud
Neither of the emissions have reached other countries at a level sufficient to cause public health concerns.
• the half-life of oil isn't some umpteen billion years
See top.
• radiation is a known cause of cancer, which used to be called "consumption". I'd rather not be so consumed if I can help avoid it.
It's fairly well-known just how much radiation a person can be subjected to before the risk of cancer starts to rise above normal. So far, the only persons who have even come close to that threshold are the emergency workers at Fukushima, and even they are being rotated out regularly to keep them below the threshold.
Even in the gap between the Western and Japanese evacuation zones, the measured radiation isn't sufficiently above background to cause a genuine cancer concern. It's elevated, but not
that elevated. And it's decreasing every day.
I think that everyone should have a very healthy fear of radiation and radioactive materials. But yes, if I had to choose, I'd prefer to see an oil spill.
Here, I guess, is where we'll have to agree to disagree. Radiation isn't a monolithic thing; some radioactive materials are more dangerous than others. Bananas are benign, plutonium is very bad, and most are somewhere in between. Iodine and cesium, especially in the levels currently measured, are bad, but not panic-worthy.
And the environmental hazards of oil spills are well documented -- just look at the recent Deepwater Horizon fiasco in the Gulf of Mexico. By contrast, the IAEA's Marine Environmental Laboratory has reported that marine emissions from Fukushima are below legal limits.
(To be fair, oils are not monolithic, either; some are more hazardous to the environment than others. But the delta between the degree of damage caused by the different types of oil is much smaller than the delta between different types of radioactive materials.)