Will my vst's still work in 20 years time? Let's discuss!!

iixorbiusii · Post by **iixorbiusii** » Fri Mar 16, 2012 12:47 pm

What equipment do I still use today which I owned 20+ years ago?... TV?, Microwave?, Computer?, Phone?, Car? Certainly not... but synths? - absolutely!

As many of us - myself included - make the switch from hardware to software-synths, the concern whether computer hardware and operating systems in, say 15~20 years time, will still let you load today's vst's is a real one.

And even if the computing systems of the future are backwards compatible, what happens if the on-line registration processes are long since abandoned?

Even if you're armed with the original Serial Number, many of today's vst's still need some kind of on-line 'handshake' with the OEM before they'll work.

I've spent a lot of money over the last 12 months on vst's like Komplete 8, Omnisphere, Sylenth, Arturia collection, Z3ta to name a few - but still not as much as I would spend on just one current hardware product like a Motif XF, Kronos or Jupiter.

However, unlike hardware which stands a good chance of still working in 20 years time if I look after it, I have no idea if I'll still be able to use these vst's then... (one major plus point for vst's - they're much easier to hide from the wife!!)

Food for thought! Any comments?

Cheers.
iix.

michelkeijzers · Post by **michelkeijzers** » Fri Mar 16, 2012 1:52 pm

I think you can. You still can use quite old software still on nowadays computers.

On the other hand, not all DOS/Windows 3.1 from 20 or more years ago still run. So what you can do is to install an old operating system (meaning Windows 7 to install on a computer from the year 2030+), install a now current version of your sequencer and software.

What might not be possible is to mix very old software/VSTs with new software/VSTs.

SanderXpander · Post by **SanderXpander** » Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:03 pm

On Apple, no. On PC, probably yes for many/most of them.
But nothing is preventing you from keeping an older computer around with the express purpose of running those vsts. Plenty of people have machines running winxp sp2 right now for the same reason.

tpantano · Post by **tpantano** » Fri Mar 16, 2012 5:15 pm

michelkeijzers wrote:I think you can. You still can use quite old software still on nowadays computers

Only recently (relatively) have developers instated intense copyright protection on software. iLok, a security measure I see as excessive and greedy, is proof of this.

Even if the software has the potential to work on future OSs and Hardware, if the security can't be worked around there will be an issue.

xmlguy · Post by **xmlguy** » Fri Mar 16, 2012 6:23 pm

In 20 years, you won't want to use today's VSTs. Keyboards will have an edge-to-edge touchscreen across the full width, and probably fliptop touchscreens as well. With that much screen surface, you wouldn't want to use VST's that are designed for today's PC monitors and for mouse-controlled interaction. Finger/Touch interfaces need more space than mouse-controlled VSTs. Imagine something like iMS-20, but with 12 times the surface so that no page switching is required. Basically you could have all of the features of a virtual analog modular Buchla 200e, fully polyphonic.

billbaker · Post by **billbaker** » Fri Mar 16, 2012 7:02 pm

+1 to xmlguy,

It's like asking will I still be hauling my DX7 around. You can get that exact sound (6-op sine FM) 3 or 4 different ways both soft and hard. Why would it matter what makes it if the sound is the same?

I look back 20 years or more and I see astounding leaps in (music) technology -- capability doubles every 4 years. Gear that had 100 sounds 20 years ago (m1) has 1000+ (triton extreme) today. Hardware that was separate is being folded in (HD recording, usb interfaces, firewire outs, flash memory). Twenty years down the road? Fug-edda-boudit.

Sure, I can see wanting to not learn over and over a new set of sound making software, but you will want to give up on older technology when the right time comes (faster processing and more stability), even if you have to abandon software you've paid good money for to do it. Amortize whatever you buy over 5 years and then write it off. You've received value for time.

If you don't want to worry about what platform it runs on there's really only one solution. Hardware. As long as we've got electricity 20 years from now current (future vintage) gear will still do what it's been designed to... mostly. Plenty of folks here are playing keyboards that old (circa '92 vintage Trinity and 01w, Quadrasynth, and other basement beauties in my stable -- not to mention the longevity of classics like the Rhodes, B3 and Analog stuff going on 40 or more years old now.)... but I can't think of any software I've kept around that long.

BB

SanderXpander · Post by **SanderXpander** » Sun Mar 18, 2012 7:50 am

I kind of agree, but don't underestimate the craziness of people. There's really no need to buy a Minimoog D today, it's completely outdated feature-wise. There are plenty of synths that sound nearly the same and that are more reliable and versatile. Yet people want the Mini because it has that exact sound. While I don't think there has been a VST as classic as the Mini D, there will I think always be people who really can't do without "the real thing", even if it should happen to be software.

Alan Waddington · Post by **Alan Waddington** » Sun Mar 18, 2012 8:44 am

It seems unlikely that much software will still be in use after 20 years. I have one or two applications that go with really old data acquisition hardware that need windows 98 as they use the old RS232 driver interface. Editors to go with todays synths may well fall into the same category.

However since electronics started using lead-free solder, the life of electronics has become much more limited due to the growth of tin-whiskers. So todays hardware synths may well stop working before 20 years is up. (Before tin-solder, the main age problem was electrolytic capacitor failure)

tpantano · Post by **tpantano** » Sun Mar 18, 2012 6:16 pm

billbaker wrote:+1 to xmlguy,

It's like asking will I still be hauling my DX7 around. You can get that exact sound (6-op sine FM) 3 or 4 different ways both soft and hard. Why would it matter what makes it if the sound is the same?

"I play more guitar usually, and Thomas plays more keyboards and bass. There's no ego involved. We don't argue about who's playing what. You can get the sound of a guitar with a keyboard, or the opposite... For everything that we do, no matter how you get to the results, the important thing is the result."

~Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo of Daft Punk

--------------------------------------------------------------

I know an artist who goes by a variety of aliases, his real name being Dave Remmler. He still uses ModPlug Tracker for his music sequencing. A tracker. Not a piano roll, not MIDI keyboards, but a tracker, where you input which note you want at what interval for which softsynth for how long at what velocity with all the modulation data you want to include, all via text- no fancy GUI.

Yet he recommends that new artists work with something more modern; recent DAWs.

Will such an artist still be using ModPlug in a few years? I have no idea. But, he's stuck with the software for past a decade- and still manages to produce fantastic, modern sounding music using archaic equipment.

In the end, what matters is what the artist wants to use. In 20 years, perhaps the majority will be using modern tech- but, there will always be those who prefer the old. Neither is superior by the tools they use- what matters is the music they make with them.